Thursday, December 29, 2011

Will I Am

I don't expect Will Venable to become a superstar and San Diego's solution to its offensive woes. I do think, however, that he's capable of much more than: .250/.321/.410 (.731 OPS).


Here are his MiLB numbers: .283/.353/.439 (.792 OPS) . You'll notice that he really isn't terribly far from that production in his time with San Diego. The differential in his slash line: .-33/-.32/-.29. That's pretty darn consistent, if you ask me.


I think that expectations surrounding him have been set high, and I think his style of play contributes to these expectations. He is exciting because he's athletic, so I think people tend to get carried away with what they believe him capable of doing. I've even found myself becoming frustrated at what he's done on the field. I think, however, we need some perspective.


Now, does that mean we shouldn't expect more from Venable? Absolutely not.


When you start looking closely at his numbers, the most obvious shortfall is this:

Venable's career K% (fangraphs.com)













His K% is considerably higher than the league average, and it's killing his overall numbers. If you look closely at all of his other graphs, you'll notice that he's very much aligned with league averages in most categories. 


So, the next obvious question is, why is that K% so high? If you look even closer at his plate discipline numbers, you'll see two trends that are working against him. In 2011, his O-Swing% (percentage of swings at balls out of the zone) was 36.7%. The league average was 30.6%, a difference of +6.1 points. The other noticeable concern is his Contact% (percentage of times he makes contact when he swings) last season was 75.8%. The league average in that category was 80.7%, a difference of -4.9 points. The conclusion is obvious: he's swinging at more pitches out of the zone and making less contact as a result.


Now, why is this important for Venable in particular? We all know this isn't good for anyone.


This is important for Venable because of this graph:


Venable's career BABIP (fangraphs.com)












As you can see, Venable's batting average when he puts the ball in play is above average and is very nearly a strength for him on offense. So the point here is that he has to find a way to become more disciplined, but more importantly he has to find a way to get the lumber on the ball. If he can make that work this season, I think you'll see his overall MLB slash line come closer to his MiLB one. Easy, right? If it were that easy, I'd still be playing the game and not writing about it. 


If Venable's bat can improve, he becomes so much more of a threat. The last two seasons, Venable has stolen 29 and 26 bases, respectively. Imagine those totals should he start getting on base more. And we already know about his defense. Last season, his UZR for RF was a very respectable 4.4. League average is typically 0.0. Overall, Venable can be a complete player. Maybe not a superstar, but certainly someone the Padres could depend upon to be a producer every night.


It seems last season was his make-or-break season, and he didn't exactly break out, so with the signing of Chris Denorfia it could be that the organization sees Venable as a platooner at best and a 4th OF at worst. However, there's nothing like success to change a team's perspective.


   

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