Latos Trade

Maybe I should hold off with this post, but I have a burning desire to comment immediately. Maybe the Padres will prove me wrong over the course of the rest of the offseason, but I have to say that right now, the trade of SP Mat Latos to the Cincinnati Reds looks like a HUGE loss for Padres fans everywhere.


First, let's look at the pieces.


We've sent:


our  ace  after three seasons of: 3.37 ERA, 1.154 WHIP, 8.7 K/9, and a 3.2 WAR last season. Tough to swallow, especially considering his best seasons are likely immediately in front of him.


We received:

Edinson Volquez who's compiled a 4.65 ERA, 1.497 WHIP, 8.7 K/9, and a -0.3 WAR last season. Yikes! The ERA is explainable...the Reds' ballpark is a hitter's paradise, but his WHIP is concerning. Will Petco help, absolutely, but we can't expect him to be a replacement for Latos.


Yonder Alonso has nice numbers in 4 MiLB seasons as a left-handed hitter: .293/.370/.466 to go along with a .837 OPS. The glove is equally strong: 13 E in 1,748 CH...a .993 Fld%. But, these numbers do not represent an upgrade over the highly-touted Anthony Rizzo. In 5 MiLB seasons as a left-handed hitter: .296/.366/.514 to go along with an .880 OPS. Rizzo's glove: 36 E's in 3,402 CH...a .989 Fld%. Add to the fact that we have many other internal candidates for 1B: Blanks, Guzman, Clark. This acquisition just doesn't compute.


Yasmani Grandal also has nice numbers from the right side of the plate in 2 MiLB seasons: .303/.401/.488, also an .888 OPS. But the glove seems suspect as he holds a .984 Fld%. The Padres could use some depth at this position, however.


Brad Boxberger seems like a nice piece. In 2 MiLB seasons, he's pitched mostly in relief, earning a 3.75 ERA to go along with a 1.262 WHIP and an 11.9 K/9. Seems like a team can never have enough bullpen options, and he seems like a good addition.


Ultimately, though, the question is, have the Padres made themselves better with this trade? My answer is no. 


No one in the deal will replace the value we had with Latos: a young, power arm under team control.


The organizational needs have not been met, either. It's created further complications at 1B, and we have a strong supply of bullpen arms that are ready or very close. Plus, the Padres already made a great acquisition in the trade of Aaron Cunningham for one of AA's best relievers in Cory Burns.


Now, maybe there's a corresponding move that will reveal the team's motive behind this deal. At this point, however, many fans have to be questioning the direction of the club.