Thursday, December 29, 2011

Will I Am

I don't expect Will Venable to become a superstar and San Diego's solution to its offensive woes. I do think, however, that he's capable of much more than: .250/.321/.410 (.731 OPS).


Here are his MiLB numbers: .283/.353/.439 (.792 OPS) . You'll notice that he really isn't terribly far from that production in his time with San Diego. The differential in his slash line: .-33/-.32/-.29. That's pretty darn consistent, if you ask me.


I think that expectations surrounding him have been set high, and I think his style of play contributes to these expectations. He is exciting because he's athletic, so I think people tend to get carried away with what they believe him capable of doing. I've even found myself becoming frustrated at what he's done on the field. I think, however, we need some perspective.


Now, does that mean we shouldn't expect more from Venable? Absolutely not.


When you start looking closely at his numbers, the most obvious shortfall is this:

Venable's career K% (fangraphs.com)













His K% is considerably higher than the league average, and it's killing his overall numbers. If you look closely at all of his other graphs, you'll notice that he's very much aligned with league averages in most categories. 


So, the next obvious question is, why is that K% so high? If you look even closer at his plate discipline numbers, you'll see two trends that are working against him. In 2011, his O-Swing% (percentage of swings at balls out of the zone) was 36.7%. The league average was 30.6%, a difference of +6.1 points. The other noticeable concern is his Contact% (percentage of times he makes contact when he swings) last season was 75.8%. The league average in that category was 80.7%, a difference of -4.9 points. The conclusion is obvious: he's swinging at more pitches out of the zone and making less contact as a result.


Now, why is this important for Venable in particular? We all know this isn't good for anyone.


This is important for Venable because of this graph:


Venable's career BABIP (fangraphs.com)












As you can see, Venable's batting average when he puts the ball in play is above average and is very nearly a strength for him on offense. So the point here is that he has to find a way to become more disciplined, but more importantly he has to find a way to get the lumber on the ball. If he can make that work this season, I think you'll see his overall MLB slash line come closer to his MiLB one. Easy, right? If it were that easy, I'd still be playing the game and not writing about it. 


If Venable's bat can improve, he becomes so much more of a threat. The last two seasons, Venable has stolen 29 and 26 bases, respectively. Imagine those totals should he start getting on base more. And we already know about his defense. Last season, his UZR for RF was a very respectable 4.4. League average is typically 0.0. Overall, Venable can be a complete player. Maybe not a superstar, but certainly someone the Padres could depend upon to be a producer every night.


It seems last season was his make-or-break season, and he didn't exactly break out, so with the signing of Chris Denorfia it could be that the organization sees Venable as a platooner at best and a 4th OF at worst. However, there's nothing like success to change a team's perspective.


   

Sunday, December 25, 2011

Christmas Miracle!

Merry Christmas, everyone!


Yep...I'm writing on Christmas evening. I've found a few precious minutes as the children are nestled, screaming in their beds for more time with toys.


Thanks to MLBTR, I came across this article from Dan Hayes at North County Times. I have to say that I was thrilled to hear San Diego is re-setting their contract talks with Cameron Maybin. Sugar plums are dancing in my heads...okay, enough of that allusion.


Over the last few weeks, new GM Josh Byrnes has come across as pretty much sticking to the company line established by Jed Hoyer and Co.: strengthen the farm system, grow our own talent, and sign those young stars to manageable contracts. Even in an interview this past Thursday on XTRA Sports 1360, Brynes was asked whether he agreed with the model of the Tampa Bay Rays. Matt Moore was mentioned as an example that epitomizes this philosophy. Byrnes seemed to be in agreement. He even went on to suggest that this strategy would be more beneficial if these types of contracts were spread out among multiple players to avoid the "all eggs in one basket" problem.


However, his actions of late have made me question whether this is actually his approach. The trading of Mat Latos was an obvious example. Rather than sign a young, talented player to a team-friendly deal, Latos was sent packing. Granted, lots of prospects were added to our system. In reality, though, they were valued much higher in the Cincinnati organization. A top ten player in the Reds' system is lucky to stay in the top 25 in San Diego's. And the whole Alonso versus Rizzo thing continues to disrupt my digestive system. Byrnes mentioned liking Alonso's major league success. Remember, though, that he's got two years on Rizzo. Give Rizzo the same opportunity and see how he's hitting major league pitching in two years. But that's fodder for a blog of another day, though.


In addition, Byrnes made several decisions in his time at Arizona where he moved key minor league prospects and seemed to prefer more veteran players. The trade of Carlos Quentin and the signing of Eric Byrnes at age 31 are two types of moves that would cripple our club with its fragile, small-market economic condition. Now, my goal is not to break down Brynes as a GM. That's already been done by Geoff Young, someone who's forgotten more about sports writing than I'll ever know.


I guess I need to bring this back to the discussion at hand, then. Engaging (or re-engaging) in talks with Maybin couldn't be a clearer message to the fans at a time when they need it most. I think the direction of the club is being questioned by many, so getting a deal done soon with Maybin would be an important signal to the fanbase that the team is committed to its young talent.


The remainder of the offseason moves will also start to produce a clearer picture of team philosophy. If the season started today, it would look like the goal of the organization is to stockpile bullpen arms. Not exactly a championship-caliber philosophy.


Fortunately, there's still plenty of more shopping days left before Spring Training. It'll be interesting to see where Brynes' starts sending his checks.


Well...gotta run. I think it's time to spike the Egg Nog. Merry Christmas to all, and to all a great week!









Thursday, December 22, 2011

Time to use live ammo

The Padres have a couple of young players currently on the big league roster that have a timer on countdown. The end of this timer will signify one of two events: #1--complete takeoff...a blastoff, if you will...a launch. #2--explosion, detonation...a destruction or end.

For a young player, this can be a motivating or debilitating factor, depending on the makeup of the player. For this first piece, Kyle Blanks is the player on the clock.

Blanks is a player who has the opportunity and potential to fill a huge void in a desperate area of need for the San Diego Padres: offensive production.

His minor league numbers are impressive: 2013 AB, .305/.392/.513 (.905 OPS).  Here's a former Padre slugger's MiLB numbers for comparison: 2480 AB, .296/.365/.448...yep...Adrian Gonzalez...one of the game's premiere hitters. The thing is, I could rattle off a handful of other star players with similar or worse minor league numbers.

I guess the real question is...how do we know when a guy's minor league numbers will translate into the big leagues? I suppose if I had the answer to that question, I wouldn't be running a blog where 40 hits in one day is cause for celebration...ha!

To me, Blanks has all that is needed to become a superstar. He's got the build and the athleticism. He can crush the ball and play solid defense. Oh, and he runs well (notice, I didn't say: "...for a big guy."). He has the demeanor and the work ethic to realize all the potential he's been blessed with.

So far, however, the MLB numbers don't bear out: 420 AB, .219/.315/.424 (.739 OPS).

Why? I'm sure there are a lot of reasons; however, one that jumps out is his K%. In 2008, Blanks put up one of his best seasons in AA San Antonio. He hit .325 with 20 HR and 107 RBI in what many consider to be a pitcher-friendly league and stadium. It tends to be the proving ground for Padres minor league hitters. Even more impressive, to go along with the power, Blanks didn't swing and miss all too often. His K rate of 15.9% was a career-best.

Unfortunately, those numbers took a turn for the worse. In 2009, at AAA Portland, that rate jumped to 22.5%. To be followed by 32.0% after a call-up to San Diego. Not much improved in 2010 as Blanks worked his way back from the DL. His rate in Hi-A was 27.3% and then 25.0% in AAA. For the Padres, during that season, Blanks struck out a career-worst 38.3% of the time. That's Mark Reynolds territory (ML worst 42.3% in 2010)...which is fine if you're launching plenty of moonshots as well. Blanks was not.

Finally, 2011 didn't show much improvement, either, as he started out with a respectable 20.4% in AA, jumped to 24.3% in AAA, and then up again to 26.8% as a Padre. Granted, these numbers are not tremendously higher than league average, but the point here is that Blanks is at his best when his K-rate is down. Duh, right?

If it's that simple to identify a problem, why can't it be that simple to fix it? That's the 64,000 dollar question for me.

I'm sure there are a number of issues at play as to why a guy's K rate jumps over time. Better pitching is probably the number one reason. However, AA is typically a place where players make it or break it, and Blanks clearly destroyed it at that level against quality pitching prospects. Maybe it's the pressure of the Show. He knows the eyes are on him and the clock is ticking. Maybe it's the coaching. Are they more hands-off or more hands-on as you move up the levels?

Maybe it's the playing time. Blanks played consistently at three levels from 2006-2008: 308 AB at Ft. Wayne (Lo-A), 465 AB at Lake Elsinore (Hi-A), and 492 AB at San Antonio (AA). His K%'s were, respectively: 22.0%, 18.5%, and 15.9%. So, is the evidence suggesting that he may have been rushed, or does he simply need to be given a full season to showcase what he has?

I'd believe it's the latter. I'd like to see Blanks given the full-time, starting LF position (1B will work, too) from the season's get-go. Run him out there every day and let the results come. The club did this with Headley, and the results are paying off. The same is true with Maybin. Blanks can be that guy. Run him out there without the fear that he'll lose his job and judge from the results.

3...2...1...liftoff! (okay, that was cheese...at least I didn't say anything about "shooting Blanks"oooh...check that title!)  


Sunday, December 18, 2011

Okay...so, now what?

The rumor mill continues to spin, with the latest word on the street being that the Cubs are in on Anthony Rizzo, et. al. for Matt Garza and possibly others.


If Rizzo isn't involved, I'll be happy with this move. If he's the key piece...ugh. I'd prefer to see Headley and a high pitching prospect in exchange for Garza. 


I really like what Garza brings to the mound: WHIP consistently near 1.25, mid to upper 3 ERA, 200 IP. Those are not to be discarded. He certainly benefited by moving out of the AL East and into the NL as his K/9 of 9.0 was a career high. He also enjoyed a career high of 5.0 WAR. Overall, his numbers are either consistent or improving as he goes. He's certainly a solid #2 or #3 in the rotation.


While those numbers will drift back to his norm, I do see some strong value in Garza, mainly due to the fact that we have several young or surgically-repaired arms we're depending on: Luebke, Stauffer, Richard. Having a Volquez and a Garza would help to solidify that rotation, though it's littered with solid 3's and 4's...no dominant ace to be found.


Granted...maybe aces aren't needed in Petco National Park. However, it'd still be nice to know that there's at least one win coming nearly every fifth day. And, I know this is a reach, there's playoff baseball to consider. You want that #1 to see as many innings as possible when it counts the most.


I just don't know why the team would place so much emphasis on trading for pitching. We can get strong pitchers to come here through free agency. The rumors I'm not hearing are about obtaining offense. The two prospects in the Latos deal may or may not be that offense, but where is that proven MLB bat that we need so desperately?





Saturday, December 17, 2011

Latos Trade

Maybe I should hold off with this post, but I have a burning desire to comment immediately. Maybe the Padres will prove me wrong over the course of the rest of the offseason, but I have to say that right now, the trade of SP Mat Latos to the Cincinnati Reds looks like a HUGE loss for Padres fans everywhere.


First, let's look at the pieces.


We've sent:


our  ace  after three seasons of: 3.37 ERA, 1.154 WHIP, 8.7 K/9, and a 3.2 WAR last season. Tough to swallow, especially considering his best seasons are likely immediately in front of him.


We received:

Edinson Volquez who's compiled a 4.65 ERA, 1.497 WHIP, 8.7 K/9, and a -0.3 WAR last season. Yikes! The ERA is explainable...the Reds' ballpark is a hitter's paradise, but his WHIP is concerning. Will Petco help, absolutely, but we can't expect him to be a replacement for Latos.


Yonder Alonso has nice numbers in 4 MiLB seasons as a left-handed hitter: .293/.370/.466 to go along with a .837 OPS. The glove is equally strong: 13 E in 1,748 CH...a .993 Fld%. But, these numbers do not represent an upgrade over the highly-touted Anthony Rizzo. In 5 MiLB seasons as a left-handed hitter: .296/.366/.514 to go along with an .880 OPS. Rizzo's glove: 36 E's in 3,402 CH...a .989 Fld%. Add to the fact that we have many other internal candidates for 1B: Blanks, Guzman, Clark. This acquisition just doesn't compute.


Yasmani Grandal also has nice numbers from the right side of the plate in 2 MiLB seasons: .303/.401/.488, also an .888 OPS. But the glove seems suspect as he holds a .984 Fld%. The Padres could use some depth at this position, however.


Brad Boxberger seems like a nice piece. In 2 MiLB seasons, he's pitched mostly in relief, earning a 3.75 ERA to go along with a 1.262 WHIP and an 11.9 K/9. Seems like a team can never have enough bullpen options, and he seems like a good addition.


Ultimately, though, the question is, have the Padres made themselves better with this trade? My answer is no. 


No one in the deal will replace the value we had with Latos: a young, power arm under team control.


The organizational needs have not been met, either. It's created further complications at 1B, and we have a strong supply of bullpen arms that are ready or very close. Plus, the Padres already made a great acquisition in the trade of Aaron Cunningham for one of AA's best relievers in Cory Burns.


Now, maybe there's a corresponding move that will reveal the team's motive behind this deal. At this point, however, many fans have to be questioning the direction of the club.









Friday, December 9, 2011

A Case for Matt Clark

One of the annual rites of the Winter Meetings is the Rule V draft.

This is an opportunity for clubs to select unprotected players from other teams' minor league systems. At the major league level, this means selecting a minor leaguer to place on that team's 25-man roster for the duration of the season. If the player doesn't stick, they're sent back to their original team. There's a whole lot more to it than that, but you get the idea.


As a Padres fan, this year was somewhat unique, as far as the draft was concerned, because the team's farm system is so stocked. There was a real risk of losing talent in this year's draft since there are only so many protected spots. 

Players like Matt Clark, Jonathan Galvez, and Drew Cumberland were just some of the names that had fans (and likely members of the organization as well) a bit nervous this time around.


As it turned out, no one was selected. I, for one, breathed a hefty sigh of relief.


I wasn't overly concerned about Galvez or Cumberland. They're both talented, no doubt, and have high ceilings, but they're also young and still perfecting their craft.

Clark, on the other hand, I feared was a goner.



Obviously, if a player is selected, it's a testament to that player's ability, as the big league club that selected them views them as ready to handle the jump. Case in point: San Diego benefited by selecting Everth Cabrera from Colorado's low minors. He had a solid rookie campaign. While he suffered some setbacks in his second season, he's still in the organization and still has a shot to become a regular.


The converse can also be true. If a player is not selected, it may be an indication that other teams don't see a major league skill set in that player. Granted, correlation doesn't necessarily indicate causation, as that 25-man roster is sacred territory and is treated as such. But where does that leave us with Clark's status?


I think we dodged a bullet. 


Clark has been flying strong and straight, under the radar his whole career. Here's what he's done:

ROOKIE: 140AB, .279AVG, 5HR, 32RBI
A-: 252AB, .266AVG, 11HR, 55RBI
A+: 250AB, .292AVG, 13HR, 46RBI
AA: 499AB, .269AVG, 28HR, 97RBI
AAA: 462AB, .292AVG, 23HR, 83RBI

Those are impressively consistent if you ask me. You know what you get: some pop and the ability to drive in runs. These are both sorely needed in San Diego. Granted, he's a lefty and they often get swallowed up by Petco National Park, but many in the organization believe that AA San Antonio plays similar to Petco, and that's the season Clark clubbed the most big flies and knocked in the most runs.


Now, I'm not lobbying for him as a starter just yet. He plays a decent 1B and made a good transition to the corner OF. I am, however, advocating for him to get first crack should the opportunity arise.


If any of the combination of Blanks, Venable, Rizzo, and Guzman can't find consistent lumber, then Clark should be the first in line to be given his starts. And when I say give him his starts, I mean it. None of this "in the lineup one day, not the next" business that seems to happen a bit too often for my taste under Black's leadership.


Obviously, MLB teams were wary of selecting him for their rosters, and they may very well be correct about his inability to translate his skill set at the highest level. For my money, though, I think he has a shot to breakout and become a regular contributor.






Thursday, December 8, 2011

Street Smarts

And away we go...

The San Diego Padres made their first Winter Meetings move on Wednesday as they made a trade to acquire Huston Street from the Colorado Rockies for cash and a PTBNL.

San Diego will take on most of Street's salary, essentially using the money they may have used to pay Bell (maybe even saving a buck or two). The kicker is that the Padres will gain a solid closer in Street but also acquire the draft picks from the departed Bell.


I see this as a great deal for San Diego. They are essentially giving up nothing while not blowing up the payroll for a free agent closer. Street has some excellent overall numbers--3.11 ERA, 178 SV, 1.066 WHIP, 9.1 K/9--and that includes the last three years in Denver. He will only get better in the friendly confines of Petco National Park.

This move takes the pressure off the young relievers and enables Gregerson to remain in a role he's better suited for: setup. My first crack at the last three innings would be: Brach, Gregerson, and Street, with Frieri ready to step in if someone struggles.

I also see this as a great move to buy another year or two to see which in-house candidates rise to the role of closer: Frieri, Brach, Quackenbush are all possibilities. I give the edge to Brach with Quackenbush (great name for a closer) not far behind.


Now, the inevitable question is, what good is a closer if we don't put runs on the board? I'm happy with this first move of the meetings, but I'd really like to see what Byrnes and Co. have in mind to improve the lineup.



Saturday, December 3, 2011

Rumor Mill #1

Baseball's Winter Meetings kick off this week, so let the mill start spinning!


MLBTR is reporting that the Padres have interest in Oakland A's closer Andrew Bailey. The bad news for the Padres is that the Rangers, Mets, Blue Jays, Mariners, and Reds are also in on him. That means the price will be high to nab the 27-year old former Rookie of the Year.


If the cost doesn't dig too deep into our system, I'm all for it.


It'd be painful to see our immensely talented farm system begin to deplete for one player, and a closer at that. However, I think the Padres could offer the A's two players that would fill their needs: Chase Headley and Matt Clark. If that's not enough, throw in a fringe prospect as well. The losses of these players will not affect the system much at all. In fact, it might make some room for a player or two to establish himself. 


This works for the A's because they saw an anemic .234/.291/.343 from the combination of Andy LaRoche and Kevin Kouzmanoff. Headley (.289/.374/.399) would represent a tremendous upgrade for Oakland in a market that is weak for 3B's. 


Additionally, the A's are seeking outfield help, and while Clark's bat hasn't been proven (solid MiLB numbers: .279/.357/.491), he has shown some pop and the ability to play the corner spots, despite the fact that his natural position is 1B. Plus, with the DH option, Clark would give the A's some flexibility.


For the Padres, Bailey (career 0.954 WHIP, 9.0 K/9) would be the perfect fit to solidify the closer role while also further benefiting from Petco National Park (as Tom Krasovic coined it). That would mean Luke Gregerson takes the 8th inning, and I'd give Brach a shot at the 7th.


It does seem that this team is in desperate need of offense, so that begs the question as to why not send Headley et. al. off for a much needed offensive upgrade? That's a completely valid point, but I feel Headley can bring much more trade value if it's for a pitcher. If Headley's in the deal for a position player, then the bigger blue chips in the farm will almost certainly have to be involved to trigger any trade.


Round and round we go! 







Friday, December 2, 2011

Proving Mound

Still got 'em on lockdown?


There was a time when San Diego's bullpen was the feather in the team's cap. Kevin Towers had an uncanny ability to piece together arms that could lock down the late innings. His talent hasn't changed (see: Arizona)...unfortunately, though, he's no longer working his skill set in America's Finest City.


That being said, the Padres were still able to benefit from his work for the past two seasons. Now, however, it's a whole new story. For the first time in a long time, San Diego will start the season without Adams and Bell and with a lot of question marks in the pen.


While it seems the Padres will benefit, in the long term, from losing both top-shelf relievers, this season is going to be more like a proving ground than ever before. The winter signings and spring training will provide more answers, but for now, the likely spots taken in the bully so far belong to:


Luke Gregerson: 55.2 IP, 1.37 WHIP (had struggles frequently last season)
Anthony Bass: 33.1 IP, 1.29 WHIP (excellent potential, might be starting)
Ernesto Frieri: 63.0 IP, 1.35 WHIP (command escaped him often last season)
Josh Spence: 29.2 IP, 1.11 WHIP (would love to see him establish himself this season)

From that point on, there's lots of questions. The latest rumor has San Diego interested in Oakland's Andrew Bailey to replace Bell. Sounds like a good option to me, but if a trade were to take place, I imagine it would run deep into our farm system to acquire Bailey.

Some internal candidates could include:

Evan Scribner: career MiLB WHIP: 1.058; K/9: 10.9 (would like to see what he can do)
Erik Hamren: career MiLB WHIP: 1.370; K/9: 7.7 (had nice stint with the big league club)
Brad Brach: career MiLB WHIP: 0.922; K/9: 11.4 (would love to see him become our closer)  

This is an area of the club whose success is critical for the Padres to compete. They have to know that their late-inning, one or two run leads will survive through the ninth. 


While there's promise, Padres fans have to be uneasy at this point in the offseason, knowing that both Adams and Bell are gone with their replacements seemingly non-existent or unproven. Stay tuned!

Tuesday, November 29, 2011

Every Fifth Day

The horses who carried the workload on the bump for the Padres last season comprised of (games started in parenthesis): Mat Latos (31), Tim Stauffer (31), Aaron Harang (28), Dustin Moseley (20), and Clayton Richard (18).


Cory Luebke (17) and Wade LeBlanc (17) also made substantial contributions; however, LeBlanc is headed for bluer waters as he was traded to Miami for catcher John Buck. A renewed Harang was offered arbitration, so it will be interesting to see what develops there.


Latos and Stauffer look to be the anchors, while Luebke (6-10, 3.29) has clearly earned a spot in the rotation with a 9.92 K/9, second only to Richard. Look for him to have a breakout season. Richard is recovering well and is expected to bounce back from shoulder surgery.


The remaining spot (or spots) are open for debate. Anthony Bass excelled in relief during the regular season, but the plan seems to be to transition him back to starter, as he made 5 starts (21.2 IP) in this year's Arizona Fall League. He surrendered 25 hits while striking out 23 and walking 5. 


Last season's Tuscon squad doesn't seem likely to produce any candidates for the remaining spots on the big league club. Most of the hurlers from that team are no longer in the organization.


That being said, there are several members of San Antonio's record-setting championship squad who are poised to see time with the big league club in 2012. Casey Kelly (11-6, 3.98, 105K), Robbie Erlin (6-2, 3.50, 92K), and Joe Wieland (7-1, 1.80, 54K) are all future fixtures in the rotation who have some solid upside.


Finally, there's free agency. Some persons of interest in my mind are Edwin Jackson and (a healthy) Scott Kazmir. Both could benefit from pitching in Petco. The best options, though, are probably going to require big money, the kind of money the Padres aren't likely to shell out this season. Outside of those arms, the pickings are slim.


If Latos and Richard can return to form, combined with a strong full season from Luebke, then this rotation could be a force to reckon with. However, as always, it's not the pitching that tends to be the concern in San Diego. It's more about whether the pitching staff can get the run support they need.  
  

Saturday, November 26, 2011

Bench Me!

For this next entry, I'll discuss the Padres bench.

I'm going to assume the team carries 12 pitchers, so that leaves 5 spots for the bench. Here are the five guys I see holding down those spots: 


#1 John Baker, C: the more I see of him, the more I like. I think he may be the perfect compliment to Hundley.


#2 Logan Forsythe, IF: would love to see him get a crack at starting, but I think 3B is his natural position, and we're loaded there. If Cabrera can't establish himself, I'd give Forsythe the first shot at replacing him.


#3 Andy Parrino, IF: really made a nice impression last season in this role; would love to see him back again. Plus the switch hitting is a great option for the bench.


#4 Mark Kotsay, OF: wasn't really sure about the signing as far as tools go, but I guess the clubhouse factor must have been a big one. I would have been happy with Hermida or Cunningham in this role as well.


#5 ???: I don't think we've finished filling out the bench from free agency yet, so I'm leaving one spot to be determined later. If we pick up a starter for the OF, Venable could be this spot. Or, Brynes might have Rizzo and Guzman platooning (not a fan of the platoon, as previously mentioned).


I like the looks of this bench more than I did last season, especially at C and IF.


The OF (besides Maybin) is the big question at this point, as are the starters. If Blanks and Venable don't rise up, we're in huge trouble. If Guzman could figure a way to effectively use the leather, he'd be a nice option out in the grass, allowing Blanks or Rizzo to take over at 1B. Ultimately, though, I'd like to see a major move made for a corner OF. We've got the prospect pipeline and the increased payroll...let's do this!

Friday, November 25, 2011

Okay...enough already. Let's set the lineup.

Thanksgiving is officially over. It's time to start talking baseball again.

Well...maybe it's a bit premature, but I'm sitting here with both kids asleep (magically and inexplicably) while the Mrs. is out scratching and clawing her way through the Black Friday crowds.

I'm putting off cleaning up the T-Day Bombs that were dropped on our kitchen because I found the replay of the Diamondbacks' N.L. West-clinching game against the Giants, and I'm thinking it's time to start talking about baseball again.

Now, it's not that I like the Giants...hate them, in fact. I don't like Arizona either...though it seems that San Diego is quickly becoming Arizona West, maybe I should start warming up to them. The fact is, I'm ready for the 2012 season to begin, so ANY baseball is GREAT baseball at this point. Now...on to the main event of the evening.

For this first blog, I figured I'd take my shot at a starting lineup I'd like to see the San Diego Padres run out for the 2012 season. Make no mistake...I'm a fan...not an expert, and these are my humble opinions.

Here's what I'd like to see on the Opening Day lineup card:

Everth Cabrera, 2B

Chase Headley, 3B

Jesus Guzman, 1B**

Kyle Blanks, LF

Nick Hundley, C

Cameron Maybin, CF

Will Venable, RF**

Jason Bartlett, SS**

Mat Latos, P

Now...there are some asterisks.

#1 Guzman isn't a defender by any means, but he can swing it. My preference would be for Rizzo to take this spot from him, but I think the 3-hole may be too much pressure for such a young guy, and he has to prove he can hit at the big league level. I don't like the idea of platooning. I believe in bench players and starters, no crossovers.

#2 Venable is on his last leg. If there's a guy we can go get for some prospects (Carlos Quentin, Domonic Brown, Nick Swisher, etc.), then I'm all for it. If not, Venable has the last chance to prove he can be a starter. Love the guy, but he's struggled mightily.

#3 Bartlett is another one I'm not sold on. Was happy with the signing originally, but just not sure he can bring back what he had. Same as above...if we can get someone else, I'm interested.

The other glaring change is 2B. Honestly, I loved the idea of the Bartlett/Hudson combo, but it didn't pan out at all. Cabrera, in my mind, should get the shot at his more natural position and maybe that could take the pressure off in the batter's box. That means we've got to beg someone to take Hudson off our hands, which may prove insurmountable.

That's my take...more on the bench later. The dishes are sending angry glares at me, and Baby Friar looks like he's trying to wake up. Happy Thanksgiving everyone! Play ball!